Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the order book is effectively saying there is no current value assigned to Wellington’s airport reaching a temperature in the market’s referenced bracket on 11 August. The market settles from the **Daily Observations** table for Wellington Intl Airport Station on Weather Underground, resolved in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so traders are really betting on the recorded maximum there rather than the more prominent day summary.

The comparison set points towards a typically cool Wellington August. Long-run climatology puts average August highs around **12–13°C**, with the World Weather Information Service showing a mean daily maximum of **12.9°C**, WeatherSpark putting daily highs around **54°F/12°C**, and other climate summaries broadly in the same range.[13][6][1] Weather Underground’s August 2026 daily observations already show several sub-12°C highs earlier in the month, with only brief warm spells, which underlines how tight the distribution usually is at this time of year.[7] For a high-temperature band market, the key reference is not average weather but whether an outlier afternoon lands above the relevant threshold.

A trader should watch the local forecast updates and any synoptic shift towards northerly flow, sunshine, or a downslope wind event, since those are the usual ingredients that can push Wellington above its normal August range. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook keeps most days between roughly **50°F and 59°F** and Weather Underground’s current history page shows the airport has already oscillated through a narrow band, making the exact afternoon peak more relevant than the daily mean.[14][7] Because the market resolves from the station’s recorded daily observations rather than the summary box, the practical check is the final table entry for 11 August, not the headline high/low figure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.