Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 12 August 2026, with the exact figure to be sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. The market currently prices this contract at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's distance and inherent forecasting uncertainty. On Polygon, traders are holding USDC-denominated conditional tokens representing discrete temperature ranges, with the winning band determined by the single highest reading captured at the airport station during that calendar day.

August represents Wellington's late winter period, when daytime highs typically range between 11–13°C, though occasional warm northerly flows can push temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms. Historical data from comparable August days shows that temperatures exceeding 18°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings above 20°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% probability across all bands suggests the market has not yet priced in meaningful conviction about any particular range, leaving substantial room for reassessment as the settlement date approaches.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Southern Oscillation Index and broader Pacific weather patterns from mid-2026 onwards, as these drive New Zealand's seasonal temperature anomalies. MetService forecasts and NIWA climate outlooks, typically released 2–4 weeks before the target date, will provide the most actionable signals for repricing. The Daily Observations resolution requirement means traders must verify Weather Underground's specific station methodology rather than relying on alternative temperature sources, which occasionally report different maxima depending on measurement timing and location.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.