Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a maximum temperature in Celsius, with traders currently pricing zero probability that it falls into the highest available range bracket. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when station equipment captures intraday peaks the headline figures may miss. USDC settlement on Polygon means traders holding conditional tokens for this outcome face a binary choice: the recorded high either lands in the specified range or it doesn't, with no partial credit for near-misses.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical August highs averaging around 12–14°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability reflects the statistical rarity of extreme heat during this month; even anomalously warm Augusts in Wellington rarely exceed 18°C, let alone breach the threshold that would trigger the highest temperature bracket. Comparable August extremes from recent decades show the airport station has recorded highs above 17°C only sporadically, typically during El Niño-influenced seasons or unusual anticyclonic systems.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Southern Hemisphere spring weather patterns emerging in late July and early August 2026, particularly any forecasts for high-pressure systems stalling over the lower North Island. The New Zealand MetService publishes extended outlooks two weeks ahead; a significant warm anomaly alert would be the primary catalyst shifting current pricing. Unusual northwesterly flow or delayed winter transitions occasionally drive August temperatures upward, though the current zero probability reflects how seldom such conditions materialise in practice.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.