Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, with the exact figure determining which temperature band this market resolves into. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current pricing, where traders are assigning negligible likelihood to the highest temperature falling within whichever range this particular contract represents—suggesting either an extremely cold or extremely warm outcome relative to typical August conditions in Wellington. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when station equipment records microvariations throughout the day.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13°C. The 0% pricing indicates this contract likely covers either a tail outcome—temperatures below 8°C or above 18°C—rather than the modal range. August 2025 data and longer-term climate records from NIWA show Wellington rarely experiences extreme temperature swings during this month, with cold snaps and warm spells both uncommon. The specificity of using airport station data rather than city-centre readings adds another layer; airport microclimates can differ by 1–2°C from surrounding areas depending on wind patterns and exposure.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Southern Oscillation Index forecasts and synoptic weather patterns emerging in late July 2026, as these drive month-ahead temperature anomalies across New Zealand. Any significant La Niña or El Niño signal could shift probabilities, though August's meteorological inertia typically dampens extreme departures from climatology. The resolution source's explicit reliance on Wunderground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—means discrepancies between reporting methods could theoretically affect settlement, though such divergences are rare for maximum temperature data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.