Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board. The market settles against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for the airport station, establishing a clear data hierarchy that prioritises granular hourly readings over summary figures. USDC settlement on Polygon means conditional token holders will receive payouts only for the range bracket containing the actual recorded high, with no partial credit across adjacent bands.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the southern hemisphere winter, with historical August maxima at the airport typically ranging between 11–14°C. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests either insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery, or traders awaiting more granular forecast data before committing capital. Comparable August days from the past decade show rare excursions above 16°C and virtually no days exceeding 18°C, making extreme heat scenarios statistically improbable for mid-winter conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService forecasts released in the week preceding settlement, as New Zealand's national weather service provides the most reliable 7–10 day outlooks for Wellington. Any unusual anticyclonic systems pushing warm air from the north could shift probability meaningfully toward higher temperature brackets. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, creating a hard deadline for position adjustments once morning observations confirm the day's trajectory.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.