Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **Wellington Airport high-temperature** contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently assigning no weight to a reading landing in the relevant upper range before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. For traders on Polymarket, that means the position is being valued through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, with the payout determined by the Wunderground daily maximum recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 3 August 2026.

August is normally one of Wellington’s cooler months, with historical August highs around **12–14°C** and average lows near **4–9°C**, while broader climatology shows the city’s warmest monthly conditions arrive in summer rather than winter.[1][2][9] Weather-history pages for Wellington also show that August daily peaks typically sit in the low teens Celsius, and records can diverge materially from the average, so a zero-implied price is best read as a statement about the likelihood of a sufficiently warm outlier rather than about the month as a whole.[2][8][14]

For the final hours, the main catalysts are the airport’s observed temperature trace, any short-lived sun breaks or wind shifts, and the timing of the day’s peak before the market’s noon UTC settlement window closes. Wellington is prone to changeable maritime weather and strong winds, which can suppress or briefly lift the daytime maximum, so traders will usually watch the Wunderground station page directly rather than relying on citywide forecasts alone.[5][6][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.