Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Wellington airport maximum for 6 August at **0% YES**, which means the contract is effectively saying the highest reading will land outside the named range at Wellington Intl Airport Station. The market resolves off the day’s peak temperature in Celsius from Wunderground’s history page for NZWN, so the key question is not the city’s headline weather but the exact airport observation that appears in that daily record.

August in Wellington is usually a cool month, with typical highs around 12°C and frequent rain or unsettled conditions, which is the backdrop traders use to judge whether a higher reading is plausible or not.[2][4][5] Recent forecast pages for Wellington and the airport also show temperatures around 10–13°C with cloud, rain risk and breezy northerlies, which keeps the distribution of outcomes fairly tight rather than suggesting a large warm-up.[6][7][15] For a Polymarket user, that matters because conditional tokens settle purely on the recorded station maximum, not on what neighbouring suburbs felt like.

The main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon forecast updates, any change in wind direction, and whether showers clear enough for brief sun-driven spikes; Wellington’s wind can make the difference between a flat, cool day and a short-lived higher print.[13][15] Traders also need to watch the Wunderground history page as the day progresses, since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC and the market is linked to the airport station’s recorded maximum rather than an averaged city forecast.[9][10] If the station logs only a modest rise from the early reading, a 0% price is consistent with how a low-volatility weather contract typically behaves on Polygon, where USDC collateral backs the conditional tokens until resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.