Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively assigning no chance that Wellington Airport’s recorded daily maximum lands in the winning Celsius band on 8 August. On the Polygon chain, that means USDC-backed conditional tokens are trading as if the outcome is settled against the higher temperature ranges, even though the final print will come from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** rather than the more prominent day-high summary.

The historical frame is straightforward: Wellington’s August climate is usually cool and narrow, with typical highs clustered around **12°C** and forecasts for this August sitting near the low teens rather than the mid-teens. AccuWeather puts August 2026 daily highs in the **53° to 60°F** range, while other climate references describe Wellington’s August highs as usually around **54°F/12°C** and rarely far above that. That matters for reading a 0% price: the market is not saying “impossible”, but that the current path of least resistance is a modest airport high, not a standout warm spike.[1][10][13][16]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual airport observations, not the forecast banner. Wellington forecasts for 8 August point to cloudy, breezy conditions with rain risk and highs around **12–13°C**, which reduces the odds of a late jump into a higher bucket, but the contract will still hinge on the specific maximum logged in Weather Underground’s hourly/daily observation data through the settlement window.[2][3][11] The practical watchpoint is the final observation series from Wellington Intl Airport: a brief clearing, downslope wind, or timing quirk in the day’s maximum can shift the reported high by a degree or two, which is enough to matter if the market is clustered tightly around one temperature band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.