Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Wellington airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of any qualifying high landing in the target range is being priced out on Polygon in USDC-backed conditional tokens. That is a very strong bearish read on the odds of a warmer-than-expected afternoon at Wellington Intl Airport, where the settlement will follow the **Daily Observations** table on Weather Underground rather than the site’s summary high/low if the two diverge.[9][12]

For context, Wellington in August is usually a cool, windy market, not a heat market. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, with its 9 August forecast around 12°C, while WeatherSpark puts the month’s typical high near 12°C and says daily highs rarely exceed about 15°C.[1][7] Weather25 and other forecast pages point to a narrow band of roughly 9–12°C for the day, which makes the contract’s upper brackets look distant unless a brief, unusually warm spike appears in the station log.[2][13] That helps explain why a zero-priced YES can persist: traders are not just pricing the day, they are pricing the specific station reading that the market rules will use.[9]

The main catalyst for a repricing is any shift in the live Wellington airport observations, especially if the cloud cover breaks earlier than expected or the wind pattern changes enough to allow a short-lived afternoon peak. AccuWeather and Wunderground both describe 9 August as breezy with rain or drizzle in the morning and clearer conditions later, which argues for monitoring the station’s hour-by-hour updates rather than the broader forecast summary.[3][12] For Polymarket users, the practical watchlist is simple: the Weather Underground history page for Wellington Intl Airport, the live hourly forecast, and any late changes in local wind or rain timing that could lift the station high into a higher Celsius band before the settlement window closes.[9][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.