Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market prices which Celsius range will contain that figure. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned reflects the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty; conditional tokens on Polygon settle against historical data from Wunderground's Wellington station records, with USDC collateral backing each outcome bucket.

Wellington's winter climate in late July typically produces daily highs between 10–13°C, though the city's exposed Cook Strait location generates substantial variability. Historical July maxima at the airport station have ranged from 6°C during severe cold snaps to 18°C in milder years. The 2015 and 2019 mid-winter periods saw several days exceed 15°C, whilst 2017 produced a notably cold July with multiple days below 8°C. These precedents suggest the most probable resolution ranges cluster in the 10–14°C band, though tail outcomes remain plausible given Wellington's weather volatility.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies across the Tasman Sea in the weeks preceding settlement, as these drive mid-latitude pressure systems affecting New Zealand's winter weather. MetService forecasts issued in early July will provide directional signals; any anomalous warming patterns or blocking high-pressure systems could shift outcomes toward higher temperature buckets. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, aligning with local afternoon conditions when daily maxima typically occur.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.