Highest temperature in Wellington on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **Wellington Airport high-temperature** contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying there is no chance of the day’s maximum at Wellington Intl Airport Station landing in the contract’s YES range. The event itself is simple: the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at the airport station on 27 July, using Wunderground’s daily history page, with settlement determined by the Celsius reading shown there. On Polygon, traders are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC, so the price reflects the crowd’s view of where that final observed maximum will end up rather than any abstract forecast of weather quality.

That zero bid is best read against Wellington’s winter climatology, where July highs are usually modest. Forecast and climate references for Wellington point to daytime temperatures around 10–12°C, with a cool southerly maritime regime and frequent rain or wind limiting upside on most winter days.[1][3] BBC Weather currently shows about 10°C, while longer-run July references place typical highs near 12°C and note persistent wet, breezy conditions.[2][3] In that context, a market at 0% YES suggests traders think the published range is so far above the likely airport maximum that a positive settlement would require an unusual warm spike.

The main catalyst is the actual Wunderground observation at Wellington Intl Airport Station as the day progresses, because the contract is decided by the highest recorded temperature, not by the forecast headline. Traders will watch for any transient warming from changing wind direction, cloud breaks, or a dry slot, but the broader setup is still governed by winter maritime conditions rather than a single scheduled release or policy event.[1][3] Any late-day swing in the airport reading matters only insofar as it changes the final maximum before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.