Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying there is no probability attached to the day’s highest reading falling into the YES range, despite the event still being open until settlement. The contract resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 31 July 2026**, as published by Wunderground, and settlement runs through **2026-07-31T12:00:00Z**. On Polymarket, traders hold **USDC** and buy or sell **conditional tokens** on Polygon, so the quoted price reflects the market’s current view of the airport station’s peak Celsius reading rather than a general Wellington forecast.

Historical context points to a cool, narrow winter profile in Wellington, where July daily highs are typically in the low teens Celsius and wind is a regular factor. Long-run seasonal data for Wellington puts July daytime highs around **11–12°C**, with frequent rain and persistent wind, while the Wellington airport observation page shows an ongoing low single-digit to low-teens winter environment rather than anything remotely hot.[15][16][4] That matters for reading a 0% price: the contract is not asking whether Wellington gets warm by local standards, but whether the airport station prints a specific highest-temperature band on the day, which usually keeps outcomes clustered near the winter average.[16][15]

For the trade from here, the main catalysts are the **overnight and morning forecast updates**, any change in **wind direction** that could briefly lift temperatures, and whether showers arrive earlier or later than expected. Current forecasts point to a **patchy rain nearby** Friday with a forecast high around **53°F/11.7°C** and a **Strong Wind Watch** in place into Friday morning, both of which can cap daytime heating at the airport.[1][3] Because the market settles from the Wunderground airport record rather than a citywide forecast, traders should watch the airport station’s observed high through the local afternoon, when even a small break in cloud or a warm northerly pulse could shift the final bucket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.