Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington on 7 July 2026 is forecast to be cold, wet and windy, with light rain showers and a fresh south-south-westerly breeze pushing temperatures to a high of just 14°C and a low of 11°C[3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for any temperature range above this aligns tightly with the seasonal reality: July is the coldest month at Wellington International Airport, averaging a high of only 54°F (12.2°C) and a low of 47°F (8.3°C)[6]. Historical parallels from the region confirm that summer highs rarely breach 18°C in mid-July, while extreme heat events like those recorded in Illinois (117°F in 1954) are geographically and seasonally irrelevant to this coastal New Zealand location[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official 7 July high temperature, as the market resolves solely on the highest reading recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station across all times of that day[2]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in wind direction or pressure systems; current data shows pressure at 996mb and rising, with wind speeds at 24 mph, which typically suppresses any temperature spike[3]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on the Wunderground dataset means any data gap or delay could affect settlement timing. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, ensure transparent, automated resolution once the source confirms the final temperature[2].

Given the 0% probability and the meteorological forecast, the market reflects a near-certainty that temperatures will remain within the lowest expected range for this date. The settlement window ending 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z allows ample time for Wunderground to publish the definitive daily high, which will be the sole determinant for resolution[2]. With no credible catalysts for a heatwave and prevailing conditions firmly in the cold, wet category, the 0% YES probability is not speculative but grounded in observable, seasonal weather patterns.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.