Highest temperature in Wellington on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is straightforward: on 30 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will be measured in degrees Celsius, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at 0%. This implies the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely because June in Wellington is historically cool, with daily highs typically decreasing from 56°F to 53°F and rarely exceeding 61°F (16°C) [5]. Historical data supports this caution; Wellington (Kelburn) recently reached its all-time maximum of 30.3°C, but this occurred during a summer heatwave, not in June, and MetService NZ confirmed Wellington already beat its maximum June temperature record earlier in the month with over 19°C on the 1st and 2nd, suggesting the current June 30 forecast remains well below extreme thresholds [3][7].

Traders should monitor the NIWA heatwave numbers report and any MetService NZ updates for sudden shifts in coastal wind patterns, which are the primary catalysts for temperature anomalies in Wellington [3]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s daily record for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, and while conditional tokens on the Polygon network settle in USDC, the on-chain mechanics are secondary to the meteorological dependency on sea breezes that typically suppress June highs [2]. Recent forecasts for June 29 favoured eleven or thirteen degrees, a one-degree deviation within normal error, indicating that a significant spike on June 30 is statistically improbable without an unannounced atmospheric event [4]. The market’s 0% price reflects this stability, as no recent announcements suggest a heatwave will breach the coastal buffer by the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.