Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport determining settlement. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical issue or extreme illiquidity in the contract's conditional token pairs. Traders holding USDC will need to assess which temperature bracket—likely spanning 5°C increments from 30°C upwards—captures the day's maximum reading, as recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low figures.

Historical August temperatures in Wuhan provide crucial calibration. The city consistently records August highs between 32°C and 36°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 38°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The 2013 summer saw Wuhan hit 40.3°C, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. August 2023 data showed typical daily maxima clustering around 33–35°C. Current climate patterns and any developing La Niña or El Niño conditions during early 2026 will influence whether this August tracks toward the cooler or hotter end of the historical distribution.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for daily temperature ranges. Any significant atmospheric systems—tropical cyclones tracking toward central China or sustained high-pressure domes—would shift probabilities materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, requiring resolution confirmation within hours of the airport station's final daily observation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.