Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will determine this market's settlement. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, indicating either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or insufficient liquidity across the outcome clusters. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical data for that specific station, converting between Celsius and Fahrenheit via the platform's settings toggle. Traders settling positions will need USDC on Polygon to execute, with conditional tokens representing each temperature band.

Wuhan's July climate presents a consistent pattern: the city ranks among China's hottest in summer, with average highs around 32–34°C and frequent excursions into the high 30s. Historical July records at Tianhe Airport show peaks exceeding 40°C in several years, though such extremes remain probabilistically concentrated in specific ranges rather than uniformly distributed. Comparable July days from 2015–2024 provide the most reliable calibration; traders should cross-reference Wunderground's archive function to assess how often each temperature bracket has materialised during this month at this station.

The key dependency is seasonal weather patterns in central China during mid-July, which typically align with the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity. No scheduled announcements directly influence this outcome, though traders monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts in early July 2026 will gain signal on atmospheric conditions approaching the settlement date. Local heat waves or unusual circulation patterns could shift probabilities across the temperature clusters; watching regional weather alerts from late June onwards provides actionable lead time.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.