Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Hong Kong Observatory’s **lowest temperature** on 10 August at **0% YES**, so conditional tokens tied to the Celsius range are currently trading as if the market sees no meaningful chance of a low enough reading to land in the specified band. For a USDC-settled contract on Polygon, that means the crowd is effectively saying the overnight or early-morning minimum is expected to stay outside the relevant bracket, even though the contract only resolves once the Observatory publishes the final daily extract.

That reading fits the seasonal baseline: Hong Kong’s August climate is typically hot and humid, with the Observatory’s normal mean minimum for 10 August around **26.5°C** and the month’s historical lows still usually in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius[4]. Recent weather also points to a warm start, with the last 15 days showing Hong Kong’s lowest observed temperature at **76°F** (about **24.4°C**) and the hottest day reaching **97°F**[2]. In practical terms, traders on Polymarket are not pricing in an unusually cool morning; they are pricing the opposite, which is why the YES side is pinned at zero.

The main catalysts are the overnight forecast, any thunderstorm or rain-band changes, and the Observatory’s published daily readings, because the market cannot resolve until the official “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” appears in the relevant daily extract[1]. Forecast services for 10 August point to warm conditions, with highs around 30–36°C and thundery showers rather than a sharp cool-down[11][17]. For market users, the key dependency is simple: if cloud, rain, or a stronger maritime flow materially lowers the overnight minimum, the pricing can move before settlement; if not, the contract should remain anchored near zero until the HKO data is finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.