Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this Hong Kong minimum-temperature contract priced at **0% YES**, so on-chain trading in **USDC on Polygon** implies the market is assigning no value to a settlement in the YES range right now. For a user holding conditional tokens, that means the trade is being priced as though the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Min** for 11 August 2026 is very unlikely to land in the contract’s YES bucket once the daily extract is published and the market can settle.

That read is broadly consistent with Hong Kong’s August climate profile. The Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals show 11 August as a very warm, humid day, with an average minimum around the mid-20s Celsius and normal daytime conditions firmly above that. Comparable August data from other weather sources put typical lows in the high-20s Celsius range, while the Observatory’s own historical reporting has shown that even unusually cool August days can still produce minimums around 25.7°C, indicating that genuinely low prints are rare rather than routine.[1][3][6]

A trader should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly readings and, more importantly, the final daily extract because the market cannot resolve until the post-event figure is published. The key dependency is the Observatory’s own “Daily Extract” page rather than a generic forecast, since settlement uses the final recorded minimum to one decimal place. Short-term rain, cloud cover, or a trough can cap temperatures, but the contract’s outcome ultimately turns on whether the official minimum enters the listed Celsius band before 12:00 UTC on 11 August 2026 and is later finalised by the Observatory.[7][10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.