Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently treating a one-off cool minimum in Hong Kong as effectively unpriced on USDC collateralised conditional tokens on Polygon. For a weather market like this, the real question is not whether August in Hong Kong is hot — it usually is — but whether the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **absolute daily minimum** for 6 August lands in the selected temperature bucket once the Daily Extract is published.

That near-zero pricing is consistent with the seasonal backdrop. Hong Kong’s August normals show a daily minimum around **26.3°C** and a typical mean minimum of **26.8°C**, with the city also seeing very warm and humid conditions through the month.[3] Long-run August summaries put average daytime temperatures around **31°C** and nighttime lows near **26°C–28°C**, while the Observatory’s own August 2025 monthly review recorded a mean daily minimum of **27.0°C** and very heavy rainfall during the month.[7][15] In other words, the baseline expectation is for a minimum well above the cooler bands, so a 0% YES quote is broadly in line with climatology rather than a strong directional view on today’s exact reading.

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s own timetable and any rain-bearing systems that pass through before the minimum is fixed. On the morning of 6 August 2025, the Observatory reported the minimum temperature by 9 a.m. as **25.5°C** amid showers and thunderstorms, showing how early-day rain can pull the floor lower than the monthly norm.[5] For this market, traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly updates, short-term forecast, and the later Daily Extract, since settlement depends on the final published **Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)** for the date, not an intraday estimate.[6][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.