Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature in degrees Celsius on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by the "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in their Daily Extract once finalised. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the absence of historical precedent for extreme cold during Hong Kong's peak summer season. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on the Observatory publishing verified data, which typically occurs within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical records from the Observatory show absolute daily minima in July cluster between 24°C and 27°C, with the lowest recorded July minimum standing at 23.8°C in 1968. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that temperatures will fall within the typical range rather than reaching anomalously low levels. July represents the heart of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when warm, moist air masses dominate and overnight cooling remains limited even during clear nights.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in early July 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea could theoretically alter local conditions, though such systems typically raise rather than lower temperatures. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts and climate summaries regularly; their monthly reports would signal any departure from normal summer conditions well before the settlement date.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.