Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is currently experiencing its peak summer heat on 12 July 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station tracking the day’s maximum Celsius reading for the upcoming Wunderground settlement. On Polymarket, this weather contract trades with the YES outcome for any temperature above the implied threshold sitting at 0% probability, reflecting a crowd consensus that extreme highs are unlikely today. Traders holding conditional tokens on the Polygon network can swap these USDC-backed positions instantly, yet the market’s current pricing suggests a near-certain resolution to a lower temperature band.

Historical data frames this 0% pricing as a rational read rather than an anomaly, given that July in Beijing typically sees daily highs around 31°C (88°F), rarely exceeding 36°C (96°F) [2]. While 2023 recorded a peak of 40°C and 2024 saw Beijing hit 41.1°C during a national heat record, such extremes are outliers rather than the norm for mid-July [1][6]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the market is effectively pricing in a standard summer day rather than a record-breaking heatwave, aligning with the average high of 31°C observed on 17 July in recent years [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, as the resolution source relies exclusively on this specific dataset [1]. No official government heat announcements are scheduled for today that would alter the baseline climatology, but the high humidity typical of Beijing’s July weather could influence the perceived intensity of the heat without necessarily pushing the maximum temperature into extreme ranges [1]. The market’s dependency on a single data feed means any latency or discrepancy in the Wunderground history page could impact final settlement, making live verification essential for position management before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.