Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 4% chance that the outcome will fall into a specific, higher range. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the 4% probability reflects the crowd’s view that extreme heat is unlikely following the recent frontal passage that cooled mid-70s readings into place[1].

Historical context frames this low probability: during the early July heatwave, LaGuardia hit 102°F, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F—breaking the 2013 record of 93°F[2]. Yet, the current forecast for July 2026 shows daily highs ranging from 71° to 90°, with overnight lows between 64° and 74°, suggesting the average high of 73°F is more probable than extreme spikes[5]. The recent cooling behind the frontal passage has positioned mid-70s as the frontrunner, making higher ranges a statistical outlier[1].

Traders should monitor the flood watch and heavy rain forecasts, which could suppress temperatures further, as well as any updates from the National Weather Service regarding the 72–75°F bracket for KNYC on 7 July[9]. A recent heat wave report noted Central Park hitting 100°F by 2 p.m., but such extremes are not expected to persist under current conditions[7]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z, with Wunderground serving as the official resolution source for the LaGuardia station’s daily high[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.