Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% YES for any outcome above a specific threshold, implying the crowd expects a modest peak despite July typically being Korea’s hottest month. Historical July data shows Seoul’s average high near 28–30°C, though extremes can reach 34°C or higher when humidity and monsoon breaks align [4][5]. In 2023, Seoul hit 38.6°C in late July, demonstrating that single-day spikes are possible even amid rainy periods [5]. The current 0% probability likely reflects uncertainty about whether a heatwave will materialise before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for 11–12 July, particularly any announcements of heatwave advisories or shifts in the East Asian monsoon front [8]. A key dependency is the timing of precipitation: if heavy rain arrives on 11 July, it could suppress temperatures on 12 July, whereas a dry spell with high humidity may push readings toward 32–34°C. Recent reports confirm July is South Korea’s rainiest month, with 12 rainy days on average and 289 mm of rainfall, which often cools daytime peaks [4]. Watch for updates from Wunderground’s Incheon station history as the day progresses; the market resolves solely on the highest temperature recorded there, not Seoul city centre readings. On-chain, positions settle in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, with no early redemption before the 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.