Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai will experience peak summer heat on 14 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's two-year horizon and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events at such distance. On Polygon, traders hold conditional tokens representing discrete temperature ranges in USDC denominations, with the winning band determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—a distinction that matters when intraday spikes occur.

Historical August temperatures at Shanghai Pudong show consistent patterns: the airport station typically records highs between 32–35°C during mid-August, with occasional peaks reaching 36–37°C during heat waves. The 2013 and 2017 August periods saw sustained temperatures above 35°C, whilst cooler years like 2015 remained closer to 32–33°C. These precedents suggest the crowd's 0% pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular outcome, as the two-year forecast window makes seasonal prediction unreliable.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological authority announcements and El Niño/La Niña forecasts from late 2025 onwards, as these influence East Asian summer patterns. Urban heat island effects around Shanghai's expanding infrastructure may also shift baseline temperatures upward compared to historical records. The resolution dependency on Weather Underground's specific station data—rather than municipal weather bureaus—creates a technical layer separate from the underlying atmospheric conditions, making source verification critical for settlement disputes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.