Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Shanghai heat range for 23 July is trading with **36°C** as the current Polymarket frontrunner at **37%**, while **35°C** sits close behind at **32%**. On Polymarket, those prices reflect demand for the relevant **conditional token** on **Polygon**, settled in **USDC**, so the market is pricing the chance that the Pudong airport station’s recorded daily high lands in each temperature band rather than making a direct forecast of the weather itself.[1]

A 36°C print is not an outlier for Shanghai in midsummer, which is why the market is split across adjacent bands rather than clustered around a single outcome. For users reading the order book, the key comparison is not “hot or not” but whether the day peaks just below, within, or above the mid-30s, because a one-degree move can shift settlement into a different bucket under the Wunderground source rule.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the forecast evolution for eastern China, any strengthening or weakening of the subtropical ridge, and whether cloud cover, rain bands, or sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon high at Pudong. Because settlement uses the daily maximum from Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station page, late revisions to the forecast matter most if they change expectations for the peak daytime temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.