Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer heat on 26 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records at Pudong International Airport, the official settlement source. The crowd has priced this contract at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the highest daily temperature will fall below the lowest threshold band offered—a striking consensus that warrants examination against Shanghai's documented climate patterns.

July represents Shanghai's hottest month, with mean maximum temperatures typically between 32–34°C and extreme readings regularly exceeding 37°C. The city experienced a peak of 40.9°C in July 2022 and has recorded temperatures above 38°C in most years since 2010. Historical data from Wunderground shows that daily highs in the 35–37°C range occur frequently during late July, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The current zero probability implies traders expect an outcome so anomalous—a cool spell during peak summer—that it contradicts decades of meteorological records for this location and season.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian summer monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity that might alter Shanghai's typical late-July weather pattern. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks; their June 2026 forecast will provide guidance on whether July conditions favour above-normal or near-normal temperatures. Additionally, any significant weather system approaching the Yangtze River Delta region in the weeks preceding 26 July could shift expectations, though historical precedent suggests sustained heat remains the baseline assumption for this date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 26? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.