Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Tokyo Haneda high-temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the current USDC/Polygon conditional-token book sees almost no chance that the day’s maximum lands in the settlement band used by the contract. Because resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, traders are really watching the airport observation itself rather than a citywide average or a general Tokyo forecast.

The historical frame is straightforward: Tokyo in August is usually hot, with monthly guidance clustering around the low- to mid-30s Celsius in daytime highs, and forecasts for early August 2026 have shown highs around 31–33°C, with some daily estimates reaching 35°C or more.[1][3][8][15][16] JMA’s 2026 daily data also shows Tokyo-area stations producing mid- to high-30s maxima on early-August days, while Haneda itself has already posted a 35.6°C daily high on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August, which is the kind of range that matters for a contract tied to the day’s peak reading.[9][11] In practice, a zero bid usually reflects either a narrow settlement band or a belief that the named station’s final reading will miss the target range, even if the broader city feels very hot.

For traders, the main catalysts are the intraday weather pattern, not scheduled events: sunshine, cloud cover, rainfall, and sea-breeze effects can all cap the maximum, while thunderstorms or typhoon-related cloud bands can suppress highs sharply.[15][16][17] The key dependency is the Wunderground Haneda daily history page, because settlement is based on that specific station and the highest reading *for all times on the day*, so late-afternoon warming or a brief spike can matter more than the morning forecast. When the market settles, the conditional token outcome will follow the Wunderground-recorded value, not any alternative airport or central-Tokyo observation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.