Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices the contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying no listed temperature bucket is currently being assigned any meaningful chance for the day’s peak at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station. On Polymarket, that exposure sits in **USDC** on **Polygon** and is represented by conditional tokens, so the live price is the crowd’s tradable estimate of where the official Haneda reading will land once Wunderground posts the daily high for 6 August 2026.[10]

For framing, Tokyo in August is normally a high-heat month rather than an outlier-driven one: broader climate references put average Tokyo highs around **31°C** with humid conditions, while daily forecasts this week have been clustering in the **high-20s to high-30s Celsius** range.[1][7][8][13] That matters because a 0% reading on a ladder market often reflects thin or stale liquidity more than a literal belief that no outcome can resolve; it is best read against the distribution of nearby buckets, which on the page is already concentrated around the low-to-mid 30s.[10]

Traders should watch the **official Wunderground history page for Haneda**, because settlement depends on the **highest temperature recorded for all times on that day** at that station, not a citywide average or another airport sensor.[10] The main catalyst is simple: any late-day spike, summer squall, or updated observational data can move the top bucket before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, and recent severe-heat reporting in Japan underlines how quickly forecasts can shift when the atmosphere is unstable.[14][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.