Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges. Polymarket currently prices all YES outcomes at 0%, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to every temperature bracket available. This reflects either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful prices across the contract's conditional token structure on Polygon.

Atlanta's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that daily highs in mid-July cluster tightly around 88–92°F, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 95°F at the airport station. The city's last July temperature above 95°F occurred in 2019; the record high for any July day stands at 100°F in 1980. This historical concentration means the market's zero-probability assignments likely reflect traders' confidence that the outcome will settle into the most frequently observed range rather than genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in late June 2026, particularly any signals of heat dome formation or tropical system activity affecting the southeastern United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly outlooks and any issued heat advisories would serve as primary catalysts for repricing. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, giving traders access to morning forecasts but not the full day's temperature data until after market closure.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.