Highest temperature in London on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which means the crowd is assigning no visible probability to the listed outcome at the moment, even though the market is still live on Polygon and ultimately settles in USDC through conditional tokens. In plain terms, traders are pricing the **highest recorded temperature at London City Airport Station on 6 August** as being outside the contract’s currently implied answer set, not necessarily saying the day will be cold. The key mechanic is that the market resolves off the Wunderground daily history page, and because the source reports temperatures in whole degrees Celsius, the final print will be an integer rather than a decimal.

The current read should be compared with London’s seasonal pattern rather than with a single forecast point. August in London is usually mild to warm, with published city forecasts clustering around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for early August, while broader August averages sit closer to the high teens. That backdrop helps explain why the market can still centre on modest temperatures even after a hot spell earlier in the summer: the city has already seen much stronger readings in 2026, including a reported 32.3°C maximum at a London weather station and a separate 26.6°C high in southwest London, but those are not the same as the airport station on this date.

A trader watching this contract would focus on the forecast evolution for southern England, any late-shifting warm plume from the continent, and whether cloud, rain or sea-breeze effects cap the daytime high near the airport. Near-term updates from major forecasters matter more than headlines about national heat records, because this market settles on one station’s daily maximum, not the UK-wide temperature story. The practical trigger is whether model guidance moves London City Airport into the upper-20s or keeps it in a more ordinary summer range, since that will determine whether the crowd starts repricing the currently flat 0% signal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.