Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the contract's settlement mechanics: conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve based on historical temperature data pulled from Weather Underground, with USDC payouts distributed only to holders of the winning range. The market structure means traders are effectively pricing the probability of each temperature bracket occurring on that specific date, though the current odds suggest minimal liquidity or positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC.

New York's July temperatures have historically clustered between 78°F and 88°F as daily highs, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s roughly once per decade. The 2021 heatwave saw LaGuardia record 96°F on 20 July, whilst the past five summers have produced peak July readings between 82°F and 91°F. This historical range provides the baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations for 2026, particularly given that seasonal patterns remain relatively stable across multi-year horizons.

The National Weather Service issues its extended forecasts roughly ten to fourteen days before the target date, with updates becoming more granular as July 19 approaches. Traders monitoring Atlantic storm systems and the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in early July will gain material signals about whether high-pressure systems or maritime influences dominate conditions that week. Current climate models suggest no exceptional heat anomalies are anticipated for mid-summer 2026, though this remains subject to revision as the date draws nearer.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.