Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing extreme heat, with temperatures reaching 37.8°C on 8 July, the highest ever recorded in the South Korean capital during the 1–10 July period since records began[1]. This real-world surge frames the market’s current 0% YES probability, which implies the crowd believes the temperature will not exceed the highest threshold defined for the contract. The settlement relies on data from Incheon International Airport, not the city centre, yet the regional heatwave suggests Incheon will also register elevated figures, making the 0% price appear potentially misaligned with the immediate weather reality.

Historically, early July in Seoul is typically warm but rarely reaches such extremes, with average highs closer to 28°C and frequent monsoon showers that usually moderate temperatures[2][3]. However, the 2026 record-breaking 37.8°C reading shatters this baseline, indicating a significant climate anomaly that traders must weigh against the conditional tokens’ USDC settlement on Polygon. The market’s pricing today reflects a lack of confidence in the threshold being breached, yet the on-chain mechanics allow for rapid repositioning if the heat persists through the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 10 July.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall, as July remains the rainiest month in Korea with concentrated heavy showers[2][6]. A clear, sunny day following the current heatwave could push Incheon’s temperature toward the upper threshold, while unexpected monsoon activity might cool the air rapidly. The dependency on Wunderground’s official daily record means that even a brief spike above the threshold could resolve the market, so real-time weather updates from the KMA are critical for assessing the catalysts driving the probability shift[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.