Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the airport-temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no odds-implied chance that Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s highest reading on 1 August 2026 lands in the YES range before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Because the event resolves from the day’s highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on Wunderground, the relevant question for a Polymarket user is whether the final airport observation clears the threshold, not whether Shanghai was broadly hot elsewhere in the city. The contract is settled in **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens, so the trade turns on the single official data feed rather than broader weather headlines.

The historical frame points to a hot but not extreme August profile. Shanghai’s August average highs are commonly put around **32–33°C**, with average lows near **26°C**, while record August heat has reached about **40–41°C** in city-based datasets, showing that genuinely extreme afternoons are possible but unusual.[2][3][5][9] Recent Shanghai weather reporting also indicates the city can string together long heatwaves in late summer, including a 2025 August run of multiple high-temperature days above 35°C, which is the kind of pattern traders use as a reference point for what a sharp inland-style spike can look like even near the coast.[6]

For the final hours, the key catalysts are the local forecast, typhoon-track changes, and whether cloud cover or rainfall suppresses the daytime maximum before the airport’s reporting window closes. Forecast services for August 2026 have already shown Shanghai daily highs mostly in the low 30s °C, with humidity and rain remaining material variables, which matters because a few degrees either side of the expected high can decide which temperature bucket resolves the market.[7][10][18] In practice, traders should watch any late-shift forecast revisions for Pudong, plus the timing of afternoon convection, since the market settles off the highest observed airport temperature rather than a city average.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.