Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai will experience peak summer heat on 12 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices this event at 0% YES, reflecting trader consensus that no specific temperature threshold has been selected as the resolution target—the contract awaits definition of which temperature range constitutes a YES outcome. On-chain, this conditional token pair trades on Polygon via USDC, with settlement contingent on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section, a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between measurement protocols.

August represents Shanghai's hottest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 32–35°C. The 2013 heatwave pushed temperatures to 38.3°C; more recently, August 2022 saw sustained readings above 35°C across multiple days. These precedents establish the plausible range traders should reference when the market's YES threshold becomes specified. Current probability reflects the contract's unresolved state rather than any forecast of actual temperature conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña developments affecting East Asian summer patterns. Shanghai's urban heat island effect—intensified by dense construction and limited green space—typically elevates airport readings by 1–2°C relative to surrounding areas. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 August 2026, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution if the market's YES threshold remains undefined until that point.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.