Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Shanghai airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the chance of the reported high landing in the selected Celsius band is negligible today. The settlement is tied to the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations** for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not the summary Day High & Low figure, and on Polymarket the exposure sits in the usual **USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token** structure rather than the underlying weather itself.

For context, August in Shanghai is normally a hot month, with typical daytime highs around **32°C** and frequent humidity and rainfall, so a summer heat reading in the low- to mid-30s is a standard baseline rather than an outlier.[1][3][15] Recent August history and forecast pages from multiple weather providers show highs commonly in the **29–35°C** range, with occasional hotter spikes above **35°C** in past years, which is the sort of distribution traders usually use to judge whether a specific band has any realistic chance.[7][11][17] Because the market settles on a single airport station reading, the relevant comparison is not citywide comfort but the exact Pudong observation that Weather Underground records for the day.[14][5]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the final outcome depends on the airport’s reported observations through the settlement window, so any late-afternoon surge, cloud cover, thunderstorms, or rainfall could cap the day’s maximum temperature and shift the band that wins.[8][17] Traders should watch the Weather Underground station page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport and compare the Daily Observations table against the market’s target range, since the contract explicitly gives that table primacy if it differs from the summary high/low display.[14][5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.