Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station, where the settlement mechanism will capture the single highest temperature recorded across all daylight and overnight hours. The current market pricing reflects zero probability assigned to any specific temperature range, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, with resolution tied directly to Wunderground's historical data feed for that station—a publicly accessible source that removes settlement ambiguity once the date passes.

July represents Shanghai's hottest month climatologically, with average daily highs near 32°C and extremes regularly exceeding 35°C. Historical records from Pudong show that temperatures above 37°C occur roughly once every two to three years during summer, whilst readings above 40°C remain rare but documented in particularly severe heatwaves. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts or that traders have not yet engaged with this contract's specific resolution mechanics.

The relevant catalyst is the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any developing tropical systems in the Western Pacific during late July. The China Meteorological Administration issues 10-day forecasts that typically become more reliable by mid-July, providing traders with concrete data on whether anomalous heat or cooler, wetter conditions will dominate Shanghai during the settlement window. Any significant typhoon activity in the region could suppress temperatures materially below seasonal norms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.