Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against discrete Celsius bands. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0%, reflecting the settlement window's closure date of 12 August 2026—a full five days before the actual observation date. This temporal mismatch means traders cannot access real-time temperature data or forecasts specific to that date, rendering the contract effectively unpriced until the settlement window reopens or extends. On Polygon, conditional tokens representing each temperature range sit dormant, with no USDC liquidity flowing between outcomes.

Historical August temperatures at Haneda provide calibration points. The airport has recorded highs between 32–35°C throughout August over the past decade, with 2020 reaching 35.5°C and 2019 peaking at 34.8°C. Mid-August typically falls within the peak summer heat period in Tokyo, though typhoon season can introduce volatility. The Japan Meteorological Agency's long-range forecasts, updated monthly, will become the primary catalyst for traders once the settlement window reopens. Seasonal patterns suggest the most probable ranges cluster around 33–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 36°C remain plausible given climate trends observed in recent years.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.