Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This stark pricing reflects a consensus that the conditions required for the YES outcome are unlikely, given the current meteorological context.

Historically, early July in Tokyo swings between mid-twenties on cloudy days and well above 30°C during heat dome events, with the warmest day of July typically reaching 31.07°C [7]. Recent data from 7 July shows Tokyo’s maximum temperature staying below 27°C, pushing outcomes toward the 25°C range [1], while a nearby station in Isesaki recorded 40.2°C, indicating regional heat variability [2]. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as a rational response to the likelihood of temperatures clustering in the lower bands rather than hitting the specific threshold.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat forecasts and any announcements regarding heat dome developments, as these directly influence temperature spikes. The settlement window ends 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z, and the resolution relies on Wunderground’s highest temperature for all times on that day [3]. With USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens governing the on-chain mechanics, the market’s price will adjust as new forecasts emerge, particularly if heat dome conditions intensify ahead of the 9 July deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.