Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured in degrees Celsius at the Wellington Intl Airport Station, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily record. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a series of conditional tokens on Polygon, priced in USDC, where the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any “YES” outcome for temperatures outside the dominant range. The market’s frontrunner is 13°C at 97%, with 14°C holding the remaining 3%, reflecting tight consensus around MetService’s long-term July clustering between 11–14°C and a mean near 12°C[1].

Historical July highs in Wellington rarely breach 14°C, with modest upside only in anomalous years; the 97% weight on 13°C aligns with three decades of records showing peaks rarely exceeding 14°C and a mean hovering near 12°C[1]. Comparable cases from early July 2026 show daytime highs typically spanning 11–15°C, reinforcing why outcomes above 14°C are priced near zero[8]. This probability distribution mirrors past winter patterns where deviations beyond 14°C are statistically rare, making the current 0% implied probability for higher ranges a rational reflection of climatic baselines.

Traders should monitor MetService’s daily forecasts for 13 July, particularly any announcements of southerly wind shifts or marine heatwave influences that could push temperatures toward 14°C. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground updates at NZWN and the official settlement window ending 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z, which locks in the final recorded high[1]. No major weather announcements have been issued yet, but NZ’s Earth Sciences agency notes that winter extremes can occasionally spike by 1–2°C above mean values, a catalyst worth tracking as the day approaches[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.