Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting the market's inability to forecast a specific temperature range more than eighteen months in advance. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in its Daily Extract, measured to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until official data becomes available.

Hong Kong's August temperatures exhibit narrow seasonal consistency. Historical data from the Observatory shows August daily minima typically range between 25.0°C and 27.5°C, with extreme lows rarely falling below 24°C. The 0% pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular outcome; traders cannot meaningfully distinguish between temperature bands when the event lies so far ahead. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket for nearer-term dates show meaningful probability distributions only within two to four weeks of settlement, as meteorological forecasting degrades sharply beyond that window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track any published long-range climate forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory or regional meteorological bodies as 2026 approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in the preceding months could shift August temperature patterns, though such shifts typically affect means rather than daily extremes. The contract's resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's data publication schedule; delays in releasing the Daily Extract would postpone settlement. As August 2026 draws closer, conditional token pricing should begin reflecting seasonal patterns and any anomalous weather systems developing in the weeks prior.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.