Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure at midday UTC on that date. Traders on Polygon are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with resolution contingent on the single lowest reading recorded across the full calendar day at that specific meteorological station.

July represents peak summer in Shanghai, with historical lows typically ranging between 24–27°C during the monsoon season. The 0% probability across all brackets suggests the crowd expects the market will either fail to settle or that no temperature band has been selected as the operative outcome. Shanghai's climate patterns show remarkably consistent overnight temperatures in mid-to-late July; the 30-year average low hovers near 25°C, with extreme variation rare. The airport station's urban heat island effect and proximity to the Huangpu River create localised conditions that differ from broader city measurements.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during July can materially shift Shanghai's weather patterns, potentially driving temperatures below seasonal norms if systems approach the region. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Wunderground's historical archive means data availability and station continuity are critical; any gaps in the airport's reporting would affect resolution eligibility.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.