GPT-5.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has officially previewed GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna on 26 June 2026, yet the model remains unavailable to the general public via ChatGPT, with broader access planned only in the coming weeks. On Polymarket, this contract currently prices at 0% YES, reflecting the market’s certainty that the specified settlement date of 31 July 2026 will not see full public availability, despite the preview announcement.

Historical rollouts of frontier models, such as GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2, consistently followed a staged pattern: limited API access for trusted partners first, followed by a multi-week delay before public ChatGPT integration. GPT-5.6 mirrors this trajectory, with OpenAI explicitly stating no general-availability date has been announced and that participation is restricted to selected organisations during the preview phase. This precedent frames the 0% probability as a rational assessment of the likely timeline, not a dismissal of the model’s existence.

Traders should monitor OpenAI’s official newsroom for any update on the general-availability date, particularly following the completion of the temporary U.S. government AI safety review mentioned in the launch announcement. Reuters reported on 26 June that OpenAI deferred the full public rollout at the U.S. government’s request, which directly explains the current delay. A sudden announcement confirming ChatGPT access before 31 July would be the sole catalyst to shift the probability, but no such signal has emerged yet.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.