Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this contract tracks is the first permanent, irreversible removal from office of any listed world leader before the end of 2026, excluding Viktor Orbán. On Polymarket, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, this "Yes" outcome sits at 0% probability, effectively signalling the market views the event as impossible within the settlement window. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics where liquidity providers and traders have collectively assigned zero likelihood to any of the remaining candidates—such as Trump, Putin, Xi, or Netanyahu—facing a credible, non-temporary exit before the deadline.

Historically, markets distinguish sharply between temporary suspensions and permanent removals, a nuance critical to reading this 0% price. Recent cases like Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension in South Korea or the provisional invocation of the 25th Amendment in the US illustrate that interim transfers of power do not satisfy resolution criteria, as confirmed by similar exchange rules on Kalshi [3]. With Orbán’s 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar already resolving the "Orbán" variant of this broader market [1], the remaining board shows no credible near-term threats; leaders like Zelenskyy, Milei, and Takaichi face no imminent forced exits, reinforcing the historical precedent that permanent removals are rare and usually preceded by clear, irreversible political collapse.

Traders should monitor official announcements of resignation, termination, or election-driven term expiration reported by at least one source agency, as these are the only catalysts that could shift the price from zero [3]. Key dependencies include scheduled election outcomes in late 2026 for leaders like Pedro Sánchez or Gustavo Petro, whose odds remain low but non-zero on other platforms [2], and any sudden, unannounced forced departures that bypass the need for prior official statements. While no recent news source currently indicates an imminent permanent removal, the market’s 0% stance implies that any such event would require a sudden, high-impact political rupture to alter the on-chain pricing before the 2026-12-31 settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.