Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump currently holds a 10% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed as President before the end of 2026, a figure that reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on the Polygon network where USDC settles these trades. This price sits significantly lower than the 28.7% probability Kalshi recently estimated for his impeachment and removal in his second term, suggesting a divergence in how different platforms weigh the likelihood of actual removal versus the procedural start of an inquiry [1].

Historically, the path to removal remains narrow when the Senate retains Republican support, as conviction is unlikely even if the House initiates an impeachment inquiry [2]. Comparable cases show that without a Senate majority for the opposing party, removal by conviction or the 25th Amendment is improbable, a structural reality that frames why the current 10% probability remains modest despite rising political tensions [2][3].

Traders should monitor announcements of impeachment inquiries from the House, as Democrats hold the majority there, while noting that any invocation of the 25th Amendment requires Vice President and Cabinet consensus [2][4]. Recent reporting highlights that Kalshi’s sharp rise in probability estimates from 22.1% to 28.7% in April signals growing market sensitivity to these catalysts, making upcoming congressional schedules and Cabinet statements critical dependencies for price movement [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.