Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map Handicap: EYE (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) | 34% |
Market context
Polymarket currently prices EYEBALLERS vs Phantom at **54% YES**, with the contract trading close to a coin-flip on Polygon USDC and settling through conditional tokens tied to the match result. The market is centred on a best-of-three winners’ match in Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10, with published schedules showing EYEBALLERS and Phantom due to play at 09:00 UTC on 8 August.[1][2][6]
A low-50s price is consistent with a match where the favourite is only modestly stronger on paper and where BO3 variance can still swing the outcome. Public listings place EYEBALLERS ahead of Phantom in official team rating and recent win rate, while also noting that the teams had no previous head-to-head meeting, which limits the value of direct history.[12] Comparable market pages on the event have shown EYEBALLERS in the high-50s to mid-50s range, indicating that Polymarket’s current level is broadly in line with the wider esports betting and prediction-market view rather than an outlier.[6][9]
The main catalysts are simple: line-up confirmation, whether the fixture stays on schedule, and any bracket reshuffle or walkover risk inside the qualifier. The open qualifier runs across 7–9 August and is listed with a large field of 104 matches, so match timing can move if earlier series run long or the organiser adjusts the schedule.[1][5][7] For Polymarket users, the key mechanics are unchanged: if the match is played and completed, the conditional token resolves to the winner; if it is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the seven-day window without a winner, the contract falls to 50-50.[2]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esport… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →