1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing **0% YES** for the exact-score contract on 1. FC Köln versus Real Sociedad, which means the market is effectively saying no explicit scoreline is being assigned any measurable probability on the order book. For a prediction market settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, that matters because the contract resolves on the final score alone, not on who “looked better” or which side had more chances.

The historical frame is thin, but the comparable data point is their UEFA Europa League tie in 1988/89, which finished 1-1 on aggregate across two legs, plus the fact that recent publicly listed friendly results for both clubs have included a spread of scorelines rather than a single pattern. Köln’s recent results have been high-variance, including a 2-2 draw with Hertha and heavy wins in pre-season, while Real Sociedad have also mixed draws with wins and defeats in friendlies and league play. That sort of profile usually pushes exact-score markets towards low-conviction pricing, especially when the possible outcomes are fragmented across multiple correct scores rather than a simple home-win or away-win view.[10][11][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are confirmation of the final venue, kick-off timing, and whether either club rotates heavily or changes the format, because the market description settles on the final score after standard time and stoppage, or after extra time if that is actually played. The practical on-chain watchpoint is whether any late team-news, schedule changes, or cancellation/postponement notices appear before the settlement window closes on 2026-08-07T16:00:00Z, since a postponed fixture can change the resolution path entirely. Pre-match line-up announcements and official club communications are the most relevant external inputs here, because exact-score pricing on Polymarket tends to move only when the expected goal environment changes materially rather than on generic match hype.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.