Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Aurora and Team Yandex will face off in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International's group stage on 14 August 2026, with the contest scheduled for 4:00 AM ET. Polymarket currently prices Aurora's victory at 42 cents on the dollar, implying roughly even odds between the two squads when accounting for the binary structure of conditional tokens on Polygon. The settlement window closes at 16:20 UTC the same day, allowing approximately twelve hours for the match to conclude and results to be confirmed before USDC payouts execute across the network.

Aurora and Team Yandex occupy similar tiers within the competitive Dota 2 ecosystem, making direct historical precedent difficult to establish. However, group-stage matches at The International typically favour teams with stronger recent LAN performance and stable five-player rosters. Aurora's qualification pathway and recent tournament placements will be the primary reference points for assessing whether the 42% probability undervalues or overvalues their chances. Team Yandex's regional standing and any roster changes announced before the event will similarly influence how traders should weight the current price relative to underlying fundamentals.

Traders should monitor official The International schedule confirmations through mid-August, as any postponement would extend the settlement window to 28 August at 23:59 ET. Announcements regarding player availability, visa delays, or technical issues at the venue could shift match dynamics materially. Additionally, the outcome of Aurora and Team Yandex's earlier group-stage matches will provide updated information on team form and meta adaptation, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities between the current 42% price and revised expectations closer to the scheduled start time.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.