Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 13% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 13% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
The Dota 2 match between Team Nemesis and PARIVISION in Esports World Cup Group C is set to begin at 14:00 UTC today, with PARIVISION heavily favoured to win. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% for a Team Nemesis victory, reflecting the market’s near-total conviction that Nemesis will not secure the win. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon are priced to resolve to PARIVISION unless the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 settlement.
Historically, such extreme odds in Dota 2 group-stage matches often precede decisive outcomes, as seen when top-ranked teams like Spirit or MOUZ faced lower-ranked opponents in previous Esports World Cups. Strafe users currently predict PARIVISION to win with 82.8% of votes, while Team Nemesis holds only 9.4% support, mirroring past patterns where underdogs rarely overturn such gaps in BO2 formats [1]. Sportsbet’s odds further reinforce this, pricing Nemesis at 13.00 and PARIVISION at 1.31, suggesting a clear mismatch in team strength [3].
Traders should monitor live net worth swings and map progression updates on Hawk Live, as sudden shifts could indicate early momentum changes [2]. Key catalysts include official roster announcements from both teams and any schedule adjustments from the Esports World Cup organisers. Recent coverage on GosuGamers confirms the match is live and progressing, with real-time statistics available for immediate analysis [4]. Any delay beyond the seven-day window or cancellation would alter the settlement, but current data points to a straightforward PARIVISION victory.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PARIVISION (BO2) - Esports W… on PolyGram
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