Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 80% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 80% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 80% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 73% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 100.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 105.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 110.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 19% |
| Game 2 Winner | 19% |
| Match Winner | 11% |
Market context
The Dota 2 clash between ZEDI Esports and GamerLegion in Esports World Cup Group A is set to begin at 09:00 UTC today, with the on-chain contract on Polymarket pricing a ZEDI victory at just 25% YES. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects a market heavily favouring GamerLegion, a sentiment that aligns with broader betting aggregates showing similar odds against the underdog.
Historically, similar Group A mismatches in Tier 1 Dota 2 tournaments often see the higher-ranked side dominate early, yet ZEDI’s 25% implied probability suggests the market expects a competitive BO2 rather than a sweep. Past Esports World Cup fixtures have occasionally produced narrow wins for lower-tier teams when fatigue or map-specific preparation favoured the underdog, though such outcomes remain rare in elite offline settings like the French venue hosting this event[7].
Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup broadcast for any pre-match roster announcements or schedule shifts, as dependencies on player availability can rapidly alter conditional token values. Recent coverage from EGamersWorld confirms the BO2 format and 09:00 UTC start time, but any delay beyond the seven-day settlement window would trigger a 50-50 resolution, making real-time schedule adherence critical for position management[3].
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports … on PolyGram
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