"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington, a historical epic about the nation’s first president, is set to open domestically on its July 3–5 weekend, with current crowd-implied probability at 0% YES for any specific gross bracket. On Polymarket, this contract trades near zero in USDC on Polygon, reflecting conditional tokens that will resolve once The Numbers publishes final 3-day figures, not studio estimates. The market hinges on whether the film meets early tracking of $23M–$35M or collapses like recent historical releases.

Historically, July 4 weekends for indie historical films have been volatile; *Supergirl* recently collapsed 76% in its second weekend, dropping to $9M and finishing fourth, while its opening was $37M[1]. This pattern suggests that even strong openings can fail to sustain, especially when competing with major releases like *Minions & Monsters*, which forecasts $68M–$87M over five days[5]. The 0% probability may reflect skepticism about *Young Washington*’s ability to avoid a similar nosedive, despite Angel Studios’ wide 2,700-screen rollout[2].

Traders should monitor Friday’s final gross, currently estimated at $7.60M from previews and early shows[7], and Saturday–Sunday performance, which will determine if the film hits the $23M+ floor. Key catalysts include social media buzz, with early reactions comparing it to *Braveheart*[8], and whether *Minions & Monsters* overshadows it in the same weekend[9]. If Friday’s $7.60M holds and weekend turnout surges, the film could approach the $23M threshold; if not, it may fall below all brackets, resolving the market to the highest range as per its rules[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.